Final 10 Prediction

This is more difficult than ever now when it is 50% jury/50% televoting. If I am fairly sure on the countries that will make a top 10 finish then I am rather clueless as to predict the actual result, point by point. But let's make a shot at this just for fun.

Posh's PREDICTION (not my personal faves) for top 10
1. Norway
2. Bosnia
3. Azerbaijan
4. Iceland
5. Ukraine
6. Armenia
7. Greece
8. Turkey
9. France
10. UK

Prediction time

Lituania: bottom
Israel: middle/bottom
France: 8-12
Sweden: 10-15
Croatia: bottom
Portugal: middle/bottom
Iceland: top 10
Greece: top 10
Armenia: top 10
Russia: middle
Azerbaijan: top 10
Bosnia: top 10
Moldova: middle
Malta: middle/bottom
Estonia: middle
Denmark: bottom
Germany: middle
Turkey: 7-13
Albania: middle/bottom
Norway: top 10
Ukraine: top 10
Romania: bottom
UK: 6-13
Finland: middle
Spain: middle

A more specific prediction for top 10 in a little while...

My Dream 10 Envelopes - Semi 1

I will save my predictions for what 10 countries we'll see on display in envelopes from the 1st semi until I've seen and heard them on TV tomorrow. But if I were to choose these are the ones going through to the final...

My Dream 10 Envelopes
1. Bosnia-Herzegovina
2. Switzerland
3. Sweden
4. Finland
5. Armenia
6. Iceland
7. Turkey
8. Malta
9. Portugal
10 Romania or Belgium

I'm sure on Bos, Tur, Mal, Arm. Almost sure on Fin, Ice, Por. Unsure but hopeful on Swe. Fear that Swi will be out and Belarus in.

It will be so exciting tomorrow!!!

The draw has been made

Earlier today the running order in the semi finals was made. It's not the best possible draw for Sweden but I still think that Malena will sail through since the average standard of songs is quite low. I will be as bold as to predict the 10 from each semi that will get to the final already at this stage. Remember this and then scroll down to this piece in May and we'll see if I was right or not. The qualifyers are marked with a star (*).

The first semi-final
Tuesday 12 May
1. Montenegro *
2. Czech Republic
3. Belgium
4. Belarus
5. Sweden *
6. Armenia *
7. Andorra
8. Switzerland *
9. Turkey *
10. Israel
11. Bulgaria (chosen with a wildcard)
12. Iceland *
13. FYR Macedonia
14. Romania
15. Finland *
16. Portugal (chosen with a wildcard) *
17. Malta (chosen with a wildcard) *
18. Bosnia & Herzegovina *

The second semi-final
Thursday 14 May
1. Croatia
2. Ireland
3. Latvia
4. Serbia
5. Poland
6. Norway *
7. Cyprus
8. Slovakia
9. Denmark *
10. Slovenia *
11. Hungary *
12. Azerbaijan *
13. Greece *
14. Lithuania *
15. Moldova *
16. Albania *
17. Ukraine (chosen with a wilcard)
18. Estonia (chosen with a wildcard) *
19. The Netherlands (chosen with a wildcard)

Only 5 countries are already in the final (the big four + the host country) out of the 25 entries we will see on stage Saturday 16 May. They were drawn to sing in this order:
3. France
10. Russia
17. Germany
23. UK
25. Spain (chosen with a wildcard)

Melodifestivalen 2009 á la Posh

There is no way that I can predict the outcome of tonight's final but I'll give you my own opinions and a few pointers to how I think the jury and the Swedes might vote.

1. Måns Zelmerlöw - Hope & Glory 3/5
A good MF-song and could have worked in ESC a few years ago. Not one year after Hero though. The song will be played to death on radio and in schlager bars but that is enough thank you. 1-4th place.

2. Caroline af Ugglas - Snälla, snälla 5/5
Go back to my comment on the first semi final and see what I wrote. I knew quality from the beginning. I love the song and I love that Caroline is so different from all the other singers. I would be honored to have Snälla, snälla represent Sweden.

3. Agnes - Love love love 3½/5
While I hear the song I like it a lot but then I kind of forget about it. Agnes is gorgeous in her golden outfit but will her voice cut it tonight? Not too sure. I fear that she'll end up in the bottom and she deserves better than that. Think that many people could have the song as their second or third choice but not enough will actually vote for it.

4. HEAT - 1000 Miles 2/5
Good voice. Good schlager-rock. Boring performance. Would go nowhere in Eurovision this year. It used to be Finland that sent songs 2-3 years after everybody else had the same style but in this case it would be the other way around. Mid-table.

5. Emilia - You're my world 3/5
Cute and nice. Sounds positive but those words never leads anywhere in this competition. You need to stand out more to earn votes. I enjoy the song but same as with Agnes I forget about it when the song is over. Bottom half.

6. Alcazar - Stay the night 4/5
Professional number and a very effective chorus. Clubs will play it after MF. Could work in Eurovision but it won't get that far because since when did Alcazar get higher than 3rd place? Mid-table.

7. Sarah Dawn Finer - Moving on 5/5
A bombastic rock ballad sung by a voice strong as Koskenkorva. I still don't understand why people don't rate the song higher? I got goosebumps when I heard it live yesterday and it just grows and grows on me. Top 4 would be fair!

8. EMD - Baby, Goodbye 2/5
I am so bored with this group. So, so bored. Danny should just ditch the other two and come back next year with a cracker song instead. That would work for me. At the same time I know how effective the chorus is and it will score well. Keeping my fingers crossed that they won't be our first choice.

9. Sofia - Alla 1/5
Not up to standard with the rest of the songs tonight. The song is ok but Sofia ain't no Anna Vissi as I've said before. Just think if the international jury had picked BWO for this spot instead! Bottom half for sure.

10. Molly Sandén - Så vill stjärnorna 1½/5
Molly is a good singer. Very good. But she deserved a much better song than this old fashioned standard ballad. With another song I would happily have showed her off for the rest of Europe to see. Oh well, maybe next year...

11. Malena Ernman - La voix 4/5
I did not like anything about the song when I heard the 1 minute clip online. I was annoyed with Malena's low voice in the verses too. Then I saw the performance and thought it was ok. Then I listened to the song some more in full and liked it better for each time. Now I see what the fuzz was about and I could very well send opera to Moscow. Never thought I'd say that but there you go.

Funny how my two favourites are from Andra Chansen.

Alright, so I think that the juries will give high marks to Sarah, Alcazar, Malena and Caroline. Low marks to EMD, Molly and Sofia (except the international jury perhaps).

The Swedes will give high marks to EMD, Måns, Caroline and Malena. A bit less to Alcazar, Sarah, HEAT and Agnes. That leaves Sofia, Molly and Emilia without points on the scoreboard from the televoting.

In this scenario the overall winner would then be one of the following: Malena, Caroline, EMD, Måns or Sarah. That is as much as I am willing to put on print. If you blackmail me I'd say that Malena will win...

Becks' prediction

Me, Thomas Lundin, Eurofivestar and some other people have had a competition of our own for the last few years. You rank all participants from first to last, according to how you think the final result will be.

If you get the winner and/or the loser right, they give you ten points each. For every correct country on spots 2-5, that will earn you an extra five points. And finally, every correct placing between 6-24 will give you one point.

This year, I will get at least ten points. I am so sure Ani Lorak will recieve flowers at the end of the show. But for the rest? I am just guessing. In my last spot I have the UK - not because they would be bad, but because they are not good enough to stand out anywhere - but they could just as well be 12th with a good performance. I just don't want Germany to come last again. They are really trying, and a second last place in only four contests? Unfair!

Well, here goes:

01 Ukraine
02 Greece
03 Armenia
04 Sweden
05 Iceland
06 Bosnia-Herzegovina
07 Serbia
08 Russia
09 Israel
10 Norway
11 Croatia
12 Turkey
13 Georgia
14 Finland
15 Romania
16 Portugal
17 Albania
18 Azerbaijan
19 Spain
20 Poland
21 Denmark
22 Latvia
23 France
24 Germany
25 United Kingdom

Shock and horror!

Not to brag, but the fact is - on the day of the final, for the last five years, I have just suddenly known who is going to win. In 2003, my head settled for Sertab, in 2004 for Ruslana, in 2005 I actually knew even before the day of the final that Greece would walk it. I woke up confident of Finnish victory in 2006, and last year God (or whoever it was) spoke to me and said "Russia? Germany? You fool - the winner must be Serbia!"

Today is the day of the final and the song playing in my head is... "Nomads in the night". What on earth? I want my money back! The function seems to be out of order.

Lucky break it happened this year. Seriously, folks. It has to be the Ukraine. Any other winner and my jaw will hang between my knees in sheer surprise.

Becks' prediction, semi 2

Oh dear, second semi on tonight already, hardly leaving us any time to digest the first one. Most people claim, in high-pitched voices, that the second semi is A LOT stronger than the first one, but I'm not too convinced. Semi 1 had a strong ending, Semi 2 has a strong opening. Also, Semi 2 has some favourites that sound fairly similar, so we could end up with a real surprise/disappointment/shock before the night is over.

Well, the ten songs that will pass on tonight, according to what I think, are (in order of appearance): Iceland, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine, Switzerland, Croatia, Bulgaria, Malta, FYR Macedonia and Portugal. It could be that Malta drops out and gets replaced by Georgia, and that cheeky Dane could also convince people despite an appalling lack of song.

If I got to pick my favourites instead, they would be: Iceland, Sweden, Ukraine, Albania, Switzerland, Croatia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Hungary and FYR Macedonia.

Worst case scenario tonight is that Ukraina steals all the disco points, and Sweden and Iceland kill each other off and miss the final altogether. Not as unthinkable as I would want it to be, I'm afraid.

But as long as those tacky, horrid, soul-less, intelligence-insulting and insultingly horrific pirates from Latvia are kept away from the final, I promise I won't cry, whatever the result.

Posh's Prediction Semi 2

I got 8 out of 10 correct in the first semi both here and when we did our own predictions during the Eurovision-party on Tuesday. After having seen the broadcast I picked Israel and the Netherlands instead of Belgium and Poland. It still came down to the same amount. For this semi I don't even have 10 songs in my "wish list" as I only care for about 8 entries and predicting is much harder than last time. I'm pretty sure on 3 songs qualifying, the rest could be almost anything. Hopefully all the pieces will come together once I've seen the show with the correct camera work and surround sound. For the moment I'm going to be bold enough to say that poor Iceland won't make it but I sincerely hope that I'm wrong. Please do prove my gut feeling wrong!

Wish list
Iceland
Sweden
Turkey
Ukraine
Switzerland
Bulgaria
Hungary
FYR Macedonia
+ 2 (Albania, Czech Rep, Belarus, Croatia, Georgia or Malta)

Prediction
Sweden
Turkey
Ukraine
Switzerland
Croatia
Bulgaria
Georgia
Malta
FYR Macedonia
Portugal

Had it already been the final I would have dreaded Latvia but I don't think kids are allowed to stay up this late on a school night and there can't be enough music-hating alcoholics in Europe to put them through on their own on a Thursday night. If the Irish turkey had to go home I think the pirates will sail away never to be seen again. Please, let this gut feeling be correct!

Becks' prediction

"You haven't predicted your top ten?", miss Posh said in an accusing tone and with lifted eyebrows. So here goes. My desperate attempt at guessing what Europe will like or not tonight (and I haven't really seen the rehearsals online) comes here.

These are the ten I would select if I was omnipotent, in totally random order: Slovenia, Norway, Poland, Andorra, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Armenia, Netherlands, Romania, Greece and Israel. Russia will have to stay out, all the reports in the newspapers have turned me off their entry completely. Only a year ago, I still loved Dima Bilan... Go figure!

But the ten that will go on are: Bosnia-Herzegovina, Norway, Greece, Armenia, Netherlands, Romania, Russia, Greece, Azerbaijan and Poland. I sincerely think and hope that both Estonia and Ireland will flop. Please, please, please.

Prediction Semi 1

Ok, here it goes.... my prediction for the 10 qualifying countries from semi final 1 tomorrow. It has never before been so difficult to predict the outcome and I'm taking some wild chances. There's only 5 songs I'm pretty sure about. But first my "wish list" in no particular order.

"Wish list"
San Marino
Slovenia
Norway
Poland
Bosnia
Armenia
Netherlands
Romania
Russia
Greece

Prediction
Belgium (yuk!)
Norway
Ireland
Armenia
Romania
Russia
Greece
Bosnia-H
Poland
Finland (!!)

What's YOUR prediction???

MF according to Becks

The last national final of the year could very well be the most important one as well. If there is a happy ending in Stockholm tonight, Sweden will select the eventual winner for Belgrade and, like in the best school books, there is not necessarily just one answer. Many different possibilities could be right. And some could be really, really wrong.

This is the prediction of Mr Becks:

1. CHARLOTTE PERRELLI - Hero 5/5
It can not come as news to anyone who read this blog regularly that this is my top tip for victory both in Sweden and in the ESC. I can, simply, not believe just how effective, brilliant and totally captivating this song is in all its simplicity. And Charlotte delivers like the born professional she is. The choreography à la Israel in the 80's also adds a lot, like the special effect and the brilliant laser beams. All in all, the perfect package.
Chances in Belgrade: Huge. A strong contender for victory, and no way in heaven or on earth will this song place lower than third.

2. SIBEL - That Is Where I'll Go 3/5
Sibel is as sweet as candy and she has a very powerful voice in addition to a very unique kind of charisma. Her only problem tonight is the battle for the ballad vote, where she is up against a very strong contender in Sanna. As the latter is a more established household name after all, I think Sibel will be on the losing end. But nothing is lost, as Miss Redzep got a lot of publicity for her new album this way.
Chances in Belgrade: Not bad but not brilliant either. Poland and Hungary could very well complicate the life of any big ballad of this kind.

3. RONGEDAL - Just A Minute 3/5
In theory, one of the biggest surprises of the year, but the Rongedal brothers have made a splash in various TV shows and have a big audience that would cheer them on whatever they did. I am still not totally convinced by their song, but smitten with their enthusiasm. Good enough for a fifth place or so, but I don't think the juries will swallow this with hook and crook.
Chances in Belgrade: Could be a surprise as all unexpected acts with talent, but could also be seen as one joke too many and flop badly.

4. LINDA BENGTZING - Hur svårt kan det va'? 4/5
Linda looks like a winner in theory as she has a very strong song, with a mix of every bombastic schlager written since the battle of Waterloo (the one in Brighton, of course) sprinkled with a bit (too much) of Mika's worldwide hits. But then there are a few things working against her: her own ability of doing too much when she should do less, the old reluctancy of the juries and the people to vote for her in the end as well as the fact that this song is so obviously constructed for domestic consumption in Sweden. It would have made a sensational ESC entry in 1986, but the world moved on since and the Swedes are not completely unaware of this.
Chances in Belgrade: Slim. It would make it into the final, but would probably be too local to make it big there.

5. CHRISTER SJÖGREN - I Love Europe 1/5
Fun fun fun with flags and a universal phrasebook, crazy enough for the Swedes to send it straight to the Globe. But this is where the fun ends. Because a closer examination of the entry shows that the melody in itself is really nothing. A sad sketch of a song that wouldn't even make it into the top ten of the Deutsche Schlagerfestspiele back in 1964. A great way for Christer to expose himself and his upcoming hit-sampler, but nothing to send off to an international competition.
Chances in Belgrade: None, what-so-ever. The people of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Slovenia are not so simple that they vote for a song just because somebody has their flag sewn on a skirt. Maybe it could steal a vote or two from the silly Irish turkey, but that would be all.

6. AMY DIAMOND - Thank You 2/5
The crashing satellite of the year. This song was clearly the strongest contender out of the first semi, but since then stronger names have lined up all over the place and Amy's little ditty feels a bit empty and tired. If you find an old single by A*Teens that you never knew about, it would give you the same feeling: ah, yes, this is what pop sounded like a few years ago. Amy shouldn't cry, as the history book shows that not everyone benefits from winning Melodifestivalen at the age of 16.
Chances in Belgrade: No better nor worse than anyone else doing this kind of pop this year, but there are a few already. Not that it matters, Amy won't get close to winning MF tonight.

7. SANNA NIELSEN - Empty Room 5/5
BIG ballad with capital letters, owing quite a lot to quite a few Celine Dion belters, especially "Think Twice". Sanna takes her big step out into the real limelight, and will hopefully forever leave the image of young, happy, schlager-Sanna behind her for good and move on with real pop material with chart success. We all knew she had the talent, but the amount of life and emotion she blows into this song is nothing short of breathtaking.
Chances in Belgrade: A possible winner. At least, the other countries with big ballads should fear Sanna tonight and wish her a second place instead.

8. NORDMAN - I lågornas sken 1/5
No, no, Nordman. Take your witches and go. I don't understand what pushes anyone in the year of 2008 to make a song about the burning of witches, and then convince Nordman, who doesn't really suit the song in the first place, to perform it. The special effect looks cool, and the chorus is efficient. But this song is just here to fill some space in the running order.
Chances in Belgrade: You never know, do you? But I would think none.

9. FRIDA FEAT HEADLINE - Upp och hoppa 1/5
Scanian hiphop-salsa, and apparently I am the dull one who doesn't get this at all. It seems this is very happy and nice, and maybe it is. But cows are nice too, and you don't send them to Eurovision. For me, in my boring ageing state, this is null and nothing, and I think the juries will be with me on this one. But there could be a few happy votes from the televoting.
Chances in Belgrade: Need I remind you? If Malta or FYR Macedonia sends something like this, the Swedes would laugh their heads off. Remember that before voting.

10. BWO - Lay Your Love On Me 5/5
Not a bad idea, perhaps. The song is fantastic in its own right and Martin is giving it all he's got. But will BWO have the radiation needed to win through in the end? I still think Alexander Bard scares people off enough to secure BWO a second runner-up position. A big hit whatever the outcome is, and the group said themselves they prefer credibility to a victory if the two can't be combined.
Chances in Belgrade: A possible winner if BWO keeps control of their own machinery. A motor mouth like Mr Bard could do a lot of good, but could also anger a few people out there. But the song and the package are top class.

My prediction:

10. Amy Diamond
9. Frida
8. Nordman
7. Christer Sjögren
6. Sibel
5. Rongedal
4. Linda Bengtzing
3. Sanna Nielsen
2. BWO
1. Charlotte Perrelli

I also think Charlotte will be a runaway winner with top marks from both jury and televote. Amy will not be last because she is the worst (she is clearly not) but she is the only one who is likely not to be anyone's real favourite.

My predictions are often a bit shaky, but I hope and believe in this. And if anyone that does not belong to my top four wins, I will sell my passport. Again.

Melodifestivalen tonight

The day is finally here when we will have the complete line up for ESC ready. All 43 entries. And Melodifestivalen is the toughest choice of them all. I can't think of any national final this year that would have had such a strong bunch of songs to vote for. Let the excitement begin!

1. "Hero" Charlotte Perrelli +++++
What a star! What a hero! I keep on singing the chorus inside my head over and over several times a day. A good sign. Every poll ever made is stating that this is the winner. I would certainly not mind. Schlagertastic!

2. "That is where I'll go" Sibel ++++
Sibel is sweet as sugar and has grown to be one of the top best vocalists in Sweden today. Her Celine-ballad is more complicated to sing than "Empty room" but she fails on the charisma and familiarity Sanna has. Mid-table is not bad in this superfinal.

3. "Just a minute" Rongedal +++
It's not until I hear it that I remember how good this is and how bubbly it makes me feel. It seems it's not only me it has the same effect on. The tabloids are whispering about "skräll"-warning. Could very well be the surprise of the evening but probably not higher than bronze. My tip is 4th.

4. "Hur svårt kan det va?" Linda Bengtzing +++
Linda could warm up a thousand households with that electricity she produces on stage. But it won't be enough to rig the voting. The jury is always against her and when it comes down to the final people usually go for the more polished songs that could work around Europe. But thanks for the old-skool-schlager Linda and keep stroking that cat!

5. "I love Europe" Christer Sjögren +
I get that you love Europe Christer but the question is would Europe love you enough to vote for your Lederhosen-Vegas-retirement-strutting? Some people see this as a dark horse but I'm not worried. The jury will reward him a grand nil points and then it won't matter how many dansband-lovers call in. He won't come last though.

6. "Thank you" Amy Diamond ++
Amy will get the child-vote and there are plenty of youngsters demanding their parents to dial for this bouncy number. By no means a candidate for the Serbia-ticket as the song isn't strong enough, but Amy is dynamite and will come back in five years and turn into the new Sanna and win it.

7. "Empty room" Sanna Nielsen +++++
The feeling! The presence! The voice! The lyrics! The melody! The juries will love it and the Swedes already love it. Just maybe enough to go all the way. I won't be surprised if it happens. Guaranteed nothing lower than 2nd place.

8. "I lågornas sken" Nordman +
Nordman's only function in Globen is to gloat over having beaten Carola to the spot. I don't think people will vote for it now when it is serious business going on. No matter how real the witch-burning on stage looks.

9. "Upp o hoppa" Frida feat. Headline ++
Frida won't charm the jury and I doubt the Swedes will go crazy for this once again when the choice stands between more known and loved acts. The standard in Globen is too high and Frida should feel lucky if she can brag about something better than a last place in this league.

10. "Lay your love on me" BWO +++++
This number is the one I'll dial at least 3 times tonight. Not only because Alexander Bard has turned into my idol for his outspoken, honest and arrogant attitude but because this is the song that I love the most. The whole act with the clothes and everything helps. But the song is pure pop and would walk it in Belgrade. Big shame that it will never happen since BWO will come 3rd after Perrelli and Nielsen when the voters have had their say.

Listen! MF semi 4

Saving the best for last? Well, there isn't going to be one single worst-of-the-worst tomorrow night. It will be a tough choice for the viewers and I stand pretty clueless as to who will join Perrelli in Globen. Not to mention Andra Chansen. It will all come down to how the singers perform there and then. Exciting!

Niklas Strömstedt - "För många ord om kärlek"
Positive surprise for me. Usually I find Strömstedt a bore but this is laid back, grown-up pop with a hint of the sound of the 60s. The question is if his fans are still out there and ready to jump the phone?

Calaisa - "If I could"
Nice country-pop but we are all familiar with the word "nice" and how wrong it is in these competitions. Quite forgettable too from this clip. Needs more Faith Hill or Dixie Chicks oomph to reach me.

Daniel Mitsogiannis - "Pame"
A smoking hit on record and I understand all too well the comparison to Cara Mia. But. The big problem is said to be Daniel on stage. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a regular 5th place for the dance track of the evening, but the reality will probably be a lower score. Shame really.

Linda Bengtzing - "Hur svårt kan det va"
Traditional fun schlager with a smiling Bengtzing as usual. This time with both something new, something old, something blue and something borrowed from "Grace Kelly". Just like Becks it drives me crazy when I can hum along to another melody when hearing a song for the first time. It drags down my enthusiasm a great deal and it's "A little bit of love" part 2 all over again. Why this ungraceful loan? Didn't the writers have faith in the song to start with? But most importantly - will the voters care? Final or Andra Chansen.

Nordman - "I lågornas sken"
Is it only me or does it sound like Hemlin is sitting on the toilet while singing? Strange chorus - not very Nordman at all. More Sarek. However, I'm not a big fan of Nordman so not complaining. At the same time not a Sarek fan either. Suspect the extreme stage show of burning witches will land the group another chance though.

Sibel - "That is where I'll go"
I liked Sibel already back in her Idols-days and am glad to finally see her on stage again. Here singing a beautiful ballad that I'm hoping won't turn screamy live. If she will be able to control the nerves I have a feeling it could go a long way. Hopefully pulling down Bengtzing from a free ride to Globen. We need two ballads in the final so BWO can have a chance against Sanna too...

Fronda - "Ingen mår så bra som jag"
I can hear a clear parallel to "Adrenaline" by Mendez in this clip. It doesn't work as well in Swedish and in 2008 as six years ago. Melodifestivalen has evolved since then. And what's the deal with the lyrics? Are they supposed to be funny? I don't get it. Not convinced last place is dedicated to Fronda still even if it is the weakest attempt for me of the week.

Charlotte Perrelli - "Hero"
Va-va-voom! The modern monster hit Perrelli has been waiting for since 1999. Based on the clip it is hard to say if it will be a winner in the end but one thing is for sure and that is that the woman can belt out a song and deliver live in front of millions of people. The dream scenario for (I think) both Perrelli and me is a 2nd place in Globen and a HUGE hit to follow that. Please, dear people of Sweden don't let this star fail to reach the final tomorrow. Enough with "skrällar" already!


In the perfect world of Posh: Perrelli & Sibel to Globen. Bengtzing & Mitsogiannis to Andra Chansen. Strömstedt 5th.


Posh says the people will vote:
Globen
Charlotte Perrelli
Linda Bengtzing
Andra Chansen
Sibel
Nordman
5. Niklas Strömstedt
6. Daniel Mitsogiannis
7. Calaisa
8. Fronda

With the reservation of a completely different list once I've heard the songs in full and seen the performances. Place 5-8 could change tremendously, the top 4 in any constellation I'm fairly sure of.

Norway - the final!

Tonight, Norway will select their entry for Belgrade, and there are all possibilites for a very happy ending as well as a complete flop and failure. What would life be without excitement?

Eight happy finalists complete the line-up in Oslo Spektrum, and here is the review and opinions of Mr Becks...



1. CRASH! - Get up 1/5
This is a good opener for the show, but not at all what I would recommend for Norway or anyone. The lead singer is good and charming enough, but rock is so 2006 by now. On top of that, this is nowhere near as strong as "In My Dreams" from 2005. This chorus lacks all kinds of finesse and elegance and keep stomping in the same place throughout its three minutes. Nice for them to reach the final, but let the fun end here.



2. ANN-MARI ANDERSEN - Ándagassii 4/5
This is the first of my two top favourites to win this final. I find this piece of contemporary pop almost breathtakingly good and captivating. The use of Sámi language is only one of many spices in the mix, this would sound good in any old language. Ann-Mari is an adorable stage presence and the backing singers contribute a lot to the overall impression. Maybe slightly too difficult to hit home with the big masses, but a very proud choice.



3. TINKERBELLS "Hold On" 1/5
Flash forward 40 years into the future: Shania Twain and Wilson Phillips chant together at the old country singers' home and the result would sound very much like this. Country with no bite, neither in the performance nor in the melody. The girls are still pretty and ever-smiling, but this would sink like a rock internationally.



4. VERONICA AKSELSEN - Am I Supposed To Love Again 4/5
A wonderful, wonderful little song that will remind more than one listener of that wonderful, wonderful little song Silje Vige sang back in Millstreet in 1993. However, one would have wished for a little bit more attack in the performance - some more conviction and more confidence. Now it all becomes a tiny bit too lean and forgettable - if Veronica could crack her own shell and come better through the screen, then she would be a real contender.



5. KING OF TROLLS - Far Away 1/5
No, no, no. In a year when far too few countries take this contest seriously and send in un-funny comedy songs instead of real choruses, a troll is not what anyone needs. This troll also stole a musical hook that Chips used for "Having A Party" already back in 1982. And - hint, hint - the world still remembers Lordi. Nobody likes a copycat. Let this delight the kindergarten kids in Norway, but spare the rest of us.



6. OLE IVARS - Som i himmelen 2/5
Sorry, miss Posh, I still quite like this. I find it pleasant and cute, and a welcome break in the middle of everybody who keeps trying too hard. But there is a lack of climax in this song, it would be a disastrous choice for Belgrade and this kind of music is maybe not what Norway wants to promote themselves with. Cute all the same, for as long as it doesn't win.



7. TORSTEIN SØDAL - Eastern Wind 1/5
No, no, no. This is almost even more no, no, no than the trolls. This kind of big, bombastic pseudo-Irish ballads polluted Eurovision for many years, and we all had more than enough of them by now. Thanks for trying, but no. Didn't Norway learn anything from the 2001 fiasco?



8. MARIA HAUKAAS STORENG - Hold On, Be Strong 5/5
At once it feels a bit better, to have my own big favourite coming after the dansband and the pointless ballad: if this felt like a winner beforehand it feels even more so now. I would hope for a more organic performance, with some interaction between Maria and her band, some more presence and maybe a hint of sin or anything slightly dangerous, just to spice things up. But that can all be fixed still. And this song is the best of the eight.

My prediction:
I choose to have faith in our Norweigan brothers and sisters, so I think they will vote Maria Haukaas Storeng to Serbia, where she is sure to make them real proud. If not, Ann-Mari Andersen would do more than nicely too. If they go for trolls or Irish ballads, I won't believe my eyes. Please, don't let us down. We need good songs now.

Moldova selects tonight

For the forth time, Moldova will send a representative to Eurovision, and I am happy they keep trying. Out of their three previous entries, they have managed to provide two songs I am really weak for. (And the third is one of the worst entries ever. Let's not even talk about it, shall we?)

Out of the submitted entries, a jury picked out 12 songs, that will be performed in reverse order as how popular they were with the jury, and now the televoters will select the winner.

Or will they? Moldova is a country well-known for its corruption, but maybe that runs on higher levels than a silly song contest?

You can listen to all the entries at the webpage of Tele-Radio-Moldova, and keep in mind that these are rough demos, often made with old synthesizers and without larger budgets. Don't worry, I am sure the winning song will be shaped up before they ship it off.

1. LUISIA ZNAMENSKY - Don't decieve my heart 1/5
An interesting voice meets an interesting production in a song that leaves no room for them to dance properly. Good intentions, but not an entry that will convince many listeners.

2. ELENA DEMIRDJEAN - Living Creatures 1/5
A happy little Disney-like song about the joy in keeping pets. One friendly advice for the future: if you are unable to pronounce words like "creatures", you can put other words into your lyrics instead.

3. SCROOM - Jane 1/5
The electric guitar sounds like an angry wasp. That is not the way to win my heart. A fair attempt to write punk pop à la Andorra last year, but this ditty has nothing going for it really.

4. GALINA SCODA - Your Own Vision 1/5
In Moldovan English, "Your Own Vision" and "Eurovision" are pronounced the same. Starts out well, and gives you the idea of a tounge-in-cheek entry, but turns very serious in the choruses. Supposed to be fun, but ends up tedious. Galina sings well, though.

5. DANA MARCHITAN - Your Name 3/5
Take note now, children - what is about to follow is called a "hook". It is a clever device that clever songwriters use to make it easier to remember their songs. This may not be the strongest song under the sun, but feels very refreshing after the first four and feels original and catchy enough.

6. JAY MON - Point Of View 3/5
A bit of polishing and a good stage show could do wonders to this song, and then this singer, sounding a tiny bit like a young Moldovan Tom Jones, could be in with a chance. The beat and drive is far from unpleasant.

7. CATRINA PISLARU - Dance With Me 1/5
The arrangement ran away from some old Yugoslav national final in the 80's and we have not missed it since. The verse is somewhat promising, but the chorus is so repetitive and simple that it kills any potential even before the first minute is over.

8. CRISTINA RUJITCAJA - You Make Me Feel Crazy 2/5
Again, the whole thing starts promising and then it can't live up to the expectations. This could have been a late single from the Corrs, if you replaced the guitars with violins, but the final result is not convincing enough.

9. GETA BURLACU - A Century Of Love 2/5
Time for a jazzy break, a laid-back song in the same vein as last year's Lithuanian entry. Pleasant indeed, but in desperate need of a chorus or any kind of dynamics. It keeps going and going without getting anywhere. A shame, but not a bad attempt.

10. EDICT - I Belive 1/5
Radio rock without a single trace of finesse. Not badly sung, but again lacking a chorus anyone would care for.

11. ALEXA - We Are One 3/5
If your Melodifestivalen favourites have been songs like "Mi Amore" or "Etymon" or any Bobby Ljunggren-disco, then this is the one for you. Predictably, Alexa is the big favourite on the message boards of ESC Today, but I don't know. I miss a bit of beating heart and something slightly more genuine. Not bad, but not what I would hope for.

12. OLIA TIRA - Always Will Be 3/5
The favourite of the pre-jury will close the show and I have to agree with them. Despite an accent the Cheeky Girls would envy, this is the one that gets me hooked. At first I found that old-fashioned bass sound annoying, but when they let the chorus loose, I find myself rather liking it; bass and all. Given some re-working and an improved arrangement and this will go even higher in my estimation.

My prediction:
Olia Tira will win it, the eurofans will go boo, Moldova will make it to the final, the western newspapers will write a lot of rubbish about the East taking over... Yeah, that's the way it will happen. Or so I think.

Melodifestivalen snippets #1

Since SVT, SR and the record labels have decided to deprive us all of the by now traditional pre-listenings before Melodifestivalen, I can't really review the songs the way I would have liked to. One-minute-long excerpts is far from enough - you need to know how a song starts, develops and ends before you can judge it.

But I had a listen to the snippets of the first eight songs, and these are my comments so far:

E-TYPE & THE POODLES
These guys ought to deliver fireworks aplenty, but the song fails to sparkle. I had expected much more of a chorus, but this feels remarkably pale. I wonder if this will impress the audience.

FACE -84
Very lean and soft music from a girly dansband with slightly more attitude than Ole Ivars in Norway. The novelty here is the funny and cute lyric, but if this is the hit of the year I will fall on my back in surprise. Sounds more like a flashback to MF 1985 than a potential winner.

VELVET
Let me state at once that I never warmed to Velvet as a solo performer, and I never liked any of her songs, and given the fact that I am not in any way trying to like this I like it remarkably much. This is smooth, professional and easy-going. But also very familiar. Maybe too familiar for the televoters. Few songs have had more suitable titles, this is truly a déjà-vu and nothing else. One year this entry was called "Etymon" and another year "Efcharisto".

BRANDUR
So, maybe this song won't set the scoreboard on fire anywhere, but every fibre in my body likes Brandur and his voice. Give the boy a career! (And better lyrics... What on earth: is this a lullaby/sung by a butterfly? What the heck? Butterflies are not known to sing a lot, and when they do you hardly ever hear them. Just for your information.)

MICHAEL MICHAILOFF
This song has also taken part before, in 2004 it was called "Love Turns Water Into Wine". I really hate the old P-word and won't use it, but didn't they really borrow a bit more than one is allowed to here?

AMY DIAMOND
I love the electronic sound of this as well as its bouncy beat. Given the truly positive reviews, revealing a Miss Diamond in top form, this shapes up to be THE favourite of this semi. But isn't the chorus slightly too weak in the long run?

SUZZIE TAPPER
Gripping, personal, touching, emotional. Put these qualities into a ballad and you have a good shot at going far in MF. I have always loved Suzzie and wish her well, but I am not sure this song was tailormade to win my love.

CHRISTER SJÖGREN
Kikki Danielsson's old "Cowboy Yodel Song" minus the yodeling, turned into a mindblowing euroflirt. Leaves me breathless and speechless, but I have to stand up for my native Sweden here. I don't think they will be silly enough to vote this into the final. Or maybe they are. Maybe it is not a coincidence that I moved away.

And, with the immense risk of making a complete fool of myself, I will try predicting even though I haven't heard the songs properly:

To the final:
Amy Diamond
Suzzie Tapper

Second Chance:
Christer Sjögren
Velvet

5. Face -84
6. E-Type & The Poodles
7. Michael Michailoff
8. Brandur

This looks insane when I see it typed out... Maybe I will have to change my mind come tomorrow...

Listen! MF semi 1

Until tomorrow 7 pm you can listen to 60 seconds of this week's MF-songs HERE. I must say that I'm rather pleased with the bunch. No Globen-winner here but a good selection of different genres. On just one listening I'd say that Amy Diamond, Suzzie Tapper and Velvet have the best songs. Not sure if I should laugh or cry when hearing "I love Europe" by Christer Sjögren. But one thing is for sure - Ingela "Pling" Forsman should be ashamed of herself!!!

No time to review the songs more than this at the moment because I have a train to catch but my prediction is that Amy and Christer will be voted through to Globen tomorrow. A big part of the Swedish population will like "I love Europe" for real. I'm not kidding. I live in a crazy nation!

Malta Song for Europe

Saturday will also see Malta select their hopeful candidate for Belgrade. The tiny island has been a bit shakey lately, placing at the very bottom of the final in 2006 and close to the very bottom in last year's semi.

To be frank, I'd say a Maltese victory in Belgrade would be nothing less than a first class sensation. I am not poking fun at Malta here - it is impressive that a tiny nation with such a small population has done so well in the past, but you can't expect them to do well every year. And this year, I doubt they will.

Anyway, I did lend an ear to all eight finalists, and since I haven't seen any established running order, I review them in alphabetical order after song title:

1. CLAUDIA FANIELLO - Caravaggio 3/5
Claudia's brother represented Malta twice and spent a short time being a sufficiently successful pop pin-up on the German market. Now his little sister wants to better his performance, and she gives all lovers of True Eurosongs real value for money. The tempo, the arrangement, the silly lyrics about a historical person... This song had never been written if there had been no Eurovision. Pleasant enough, but songs like these did better in the past. Just like Caravaggio himself.

2. MORENA - Casanova 1/5
I must admit that I have grown tired of the songwriting team of Vella/Borg, and find their songs too calculated and antiseptic. It seems I am not alone, given the failure of "Vertigo" last year. This one would not fare better at all. Morena is a sweet girl and an energetic performer. But nobody would be able to save this anti-song with it's unsingable anti-chorus.

3. ELEANOR CASSAR - Give Me A Chance 2/5
Eleanor Cassar is a good singer and secures a solid vocal performance on this belter. But the song in itself is almost ridiculously dull. Songs like this took part in every UK and Irish national final back in the early 90's. We yawned already then and time did the genre no favours. Good night.

4. KLINSMANN - Go 2/5
Young Klinsmann is sweeter than candy and sings well enough, with a voice reminiscing of Herman's Hermits (google them, kids) and a song that desperately wants to be last year's Andorran entry. Only this song needs a walking aid to be able to move forward and before its three minutes in the sun are over, your mind has surely drifted elsewhere.

5. ROSMAN PACE - Love Is Just The Way 0/5
Had pathetic lyrics been considered a crime towards humanity, then Rosman would find himself on the way to The Hague rather than Belgrade. Drivel with extra cheese, just as bad as any "Millenium of Love" or "Why Angels Cry". Meant to make you feel warm and hopeful, but it just makes me fuming mad. Which in a way is good, since it takes my mind of the sopoforic melody. Scary stuff.

6. PETRA ZAMMIT - Street Car Of Desire 2/5
By far the most musically interesting song in the Maltese selection: bluesy and slightly seductive, it stands out by a mile. Petra is yet another good singer who delivers her number with conviction, but one good idea alone does not make a hit song. A good try, but not remarkable enough to make it big in Belgrade.

7. CLAUDIA FANIELLO - Sunrise 3/5
Claudia tries her luck with two songs in the final and "Sunrise" is clearly the more sophistacated of her ditties. Easy going, with a few pleasant ideas in the arrangement. Well sung. Most people will like this, but this is not the song that makes anyone reach for their phones to televote.

8. MORENA - Vodka 1/5
No. No no no no no. No. Enough is enough. This could have been funny, great, happy, clappy stuff that I would have somehow loved. But no. It is just too much and too fabricated. And too silly. And just not clever enough. Poor Morena, can't anyone just write her a decent song instead? This could have been a classic, now it is just headache set to music.

My prediction:
Claudia Faniello - Caravaggio
Because it is easy and catchy with a hook. Nothing that will get even remotely close to winning in Belgrade, but nothing that will disgrace the sunny little island either. But if the Devil forgot to shut his door properly, then it is Vodka for everyone at the after party.

Czech republic

Unlike most fans I've come across on the net, I am fairly enthusiastic about the Czech republic's national final on Saturday. It is fantastically free from Eurocheese and that is what I long for. Of course, there are ups and downs, like anywhere else, but the overall quality is good.

It also feels nice when new countries bring in new sounds to differ themselves out from everything that passed before. Here is my short review of the songs without having seen them, of course, only listened to them on the homepage of the NF.

1. GIPSY.CZ - Benga Beating 2/5
Fairly engaging gypsy rap from a group that possibly could gain some attention internationally. Much better than their effort from last year with a way catchier chorus. Could be a surprise winner, but the chorus feels somewhat empty after a while and the song fails to keep you hooked for the entire three minutes it lasts.

2. TERESA KERNDLOVÀ - Have Some Fun 3/5
"Fight", the 2007 Moldovan contribution, seems to have made a real impact on quite a few songwriters during the ongoing national final season. This is the Czech version, and it starts out fantastically with a great intro and a fantastic verse that builds up to an almost Spice Girls-esque level before it crumbles to dust at the chorus. A real disappointment in other words - this could be the B-side of a Cyndi Lauper single back in 1984. A shame, the girl has a good voice, but the package is not strong enough.

3. ČECHOMOR - Józef, mój kochany 3/5
Superbly arranged and sung piece of music that sounds like the soundtrack of a prize winning film from some Slavic movie festival. This could have been a Yugoslav entry back in the 70's, and that is entirely positive in my book. Very competent but without the shadow of a chance internationally. Too good for its own good.

4. SÁMER ISSA - Pick A Star 4/5
A slick and convincing contemporary pop number with rock influences, performed by a local heartthrob who would probably never have to spend a night on his own unless he choses to himself. A perfect radio hit of a kind that has not been to successful in the actual contest so far. Maybe a bit too inaccessible for a large audience on a first listening. But that never made a song bad.

5. L.B.P - Don't Leave Me 1/5
Dead plastic with no soul in it anywhere, whatever the performers make believe. Goes nowhere. Not aggressively bad, but nothing to waste one's time with. The weakest effort of the lot.

6. TEMPERAMENTO - Další den přijde 2/5
Laidback guitar based soft rock that starts out promising, a bit like some Zdob ši Zdub's album tracks, but then falls into a lack of dynamic that makes you lose interest quite soon. Not bad, but this is not the right place for it.

7. LE MONDE - Another Chance 4/5
Le Monde is everything The Jet Set from Poland wanted to be. Modern, clever, danceable and interesting. Great production, good voices and overall a good impression. If they give a solid performance and stay clear of porn shocks à la "Time To Party", the grade could even go up further in my list.

8. TOXIQUE - Two Sides 3/5
When Gwen Stefani is out on solo adventures, admirers of No Doubt should turn to the Czech republic. Toxique does quirky, funny pop/rock that is quite adorable. Had there been more of a chorus or even a handle to grip the song by, they would have had better possibilities to convince the televoters, probably.

9. EVA FRÜHLINGOVA - Partir et revenir 4/5
Not only is Frühlingova a heartbreakingly beautiful name - this song is my favourite one in the contest. The only thing holding me back from giving it a full five is that we are still so early in the season and there is not much to compare with. But this is the song France should have had entered already ten years ago (and every year since): witty, smooth-going and deadly charming, with more than a hint of Isabelle Caux and other female singers of that time. For me this is nostalgia, but also a very good song delivered by a very likeable voice. But if it wins, my jaw will drop to the floor.

10. DANIEL NEKONEČNÝ - Holiday 3/5
Joke entries are not my thing at all, but I find this quite irresistible. Wacky, weird, whimsical, dumb, silly... quite a few invectives could be thrown at it, but it is well aware of it itself. Join in the rhythm, shake it and laugh with it or at it - this is just entertainment. Not an impossible winner, but maybe not the song to bring the 2009 final to Prague.

If I get to guess, then I would have no idea. Probably "Holiday" will win it for being festive enough as well as the odd one out, but if Le Monde or Eva Frühlingova wins (and turn out to be good performers), I will defend the Czech Republic all through the season.

My guess:
Daniel Nekonečný - Holiday